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Everyone Needs a Contingency Plan
by Sally Strackbein
Over half a million Maryland and Virginia residents lost power because of Hurricane Floyd. My 82 year old mother is one of them. She went without electricity for six days.
The U.S. federal government's Y2K preparedness advice for people is, "Stock up for a long weekend." Is this what they mean?
The "long weekend" advice is flawed.
My mother went well past a long weekend with no power. Her electric stove didn't work. Her electric water heater didn't work. She was lucky because the stores stayed open and she could buy more batteries.
She could eat out. Because the weather was mild, she didn't need heat or air conditioning. If this outage had happened in January, she wouldn't be able to stay warm without her electric heat. Perhaps the
stores will also be without electricity next time. Next time, things might be worse.
This time, the repairmen knew what the problem was. They had the equipment and crews to solve it. Still, repairs took longer than a "long weekend." What will they do if Y2K knocks out power and
they don't know exactly where the problem is? What will happen if they can't get new components immediately?
Everyone needs a contingency plan.
The most important piece of the Y2K readiness puzzle is the contingency plan. Utility spokespersons don't describe their Y2K contingency plans in terms of a 3-day winter storm or a long weekend. Their
plans are generally in the 14-90 day range. For example, I heard an electric company spokesperson reassure his audience that his company was planning to have a 90 day supply of coal on hand. Yet the
government tells the individual citizen to prepare for only 3 days.
Why is my mother an alarmist or a "hoarder" if she has a Y2K contingency plan?
Let's blame the prepared.
The Y2K spin is taking on the appearance of a tropical storm building up to hurricane force. We read story after story about how the effects of stockpiling will be "worse than the computer bug."
I suspect the government is preparing to blame shortages of supplies on those who have been preparing for Y2K.
The President's Council says stocking up is selfish.
At the September meeting of the Washington DC Year 2000 group, Janet Abrams, the number two person on the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said that the Council had public relations firms
working for them. If the President's Council wanted to send the message "prepare for Y2K," that's what people would hear. Instead, the public is told that stocking up is selfish.
On a recent teleconference call, John Koskinen, Chairman of the President's Council, told a group of Y2K community organizers, "There are no free lunches here. If you've gotten a month's supply then
that means someone else doesn't have any. There's no evidence that a month's supply is needed in the US."
This message is echoed by other sources. Steve Davis, who helped Montgomery County, Maryland, get ready for Y2K, said, "If there is a finite amount of goods available over a given time period (which
is the case) and half the population goes out and gets twice as much as usual, the other half of the population will not be able to get anything."
The people are not preparing.
Half the population isn't stocking up. Most of those who prepare for Y2K are overstocking simply because the people they care about are not preparing! These people are neither selfish nor foolish.
Davis also said, "We do know that mass changes in consumer behavior will definitely cause supply-chain problems."
It's computer behavior, not human behavior!
Mass changes in computer behavior will also cause supply-chain problems. Computers are used in every link in the supply-chain: farm to fork, oil well to gas station, raw materials to pharmacy, application
to welfare check, silicon to computer chip, rain to tap water, toilet to waste treatment, telecommunications, natural gas well to stovetop, coal to electric lights and just about everything else we take
for granted in our modern society.
I've been programming computers for 30 years. I know computer behavior like a mother knows her children's behavior. So do the computer programmers who are fixing Y2K problems.
Glitches will happen.
I predict glitches! Many utilities, government departments and companies have not yet finished. The quantity of work and the time allotted to do it do not match. When you first install new or changed
computer programs, the chance of bugs biting is close to 100 percent. Ordinarily, this is not a big deal, as you can always go back to the old programs while you fix the new ones. On January 1, this
fallback is not available. Y2K is the very first true deadline in the history of computing.
Millions of minds working on the same problem (preparedness) will find solutions we haven't dreamed of. Those millions of minds are not thinking about solutions, because the federal government and their
PR firms have lulled most people into thinking there is no problem.
Companies and governments are preparing contingency plans. My mother is testing her Y2K plan. Everyone needs a contingency plan, not just for Y2K, but for any emergency.
There is still time to prepare.
While there are less than 95 days left before the date rollover, there is still time for you to prepare and test a personal or family contingency plan. People who are prepared can be patient while Y2K
problems are solved.
Stock a full pantry of non-perishable food that doesn't take much or any cooking. Store at least one gallon of water per person per day. As you are making your plans, think about who you care about
and who might show up on your doorstep and, if feasible, include them in your plans.
Determine how you will stay warm, and test your plan as soon as it gets cold. Ask your fire department how to ensure light and warmth without burning your house down, or dying of carbon monoxide poisoning.
Remember, if businesses and governments need a contingency plan, so do you.
* This article was the second to last op-ed article featured on the Y2K Today website.
www.y2kkitchen.com Copyright © Sally Strackbein sally@y2kkitchen.com
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