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An Analysis of
Food Supply Working Group's
"Y2K and the Food Supply,
Fourth Quarterly Report"
by Sally Strackbein
The United States Department of Agriculture chairs The Food Supply Working Group (FSWG). The FSWG includes representatives from several government departments and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
and from key food industry associations.
The report states:
"Consumers should prepare for the year 2000 as they normally would for a long, and very special, holiday weekend."
After hearing that advice, I would buy some champagne for this special weekend that only arrives once in a thousand years. I'd have a party and invite everyone I know. I'd spend at least two days
shopping, baking and cooking. I'd wait until the absolutely last minute to shop for the some of the food because I would want the very freshest ingredients for this special meal. I'd probably make at
least 4 or 5 trips to the store as I thought of more great ideas.
The report attempts to reassure the public that there is an abundant food supply:
"Industry experts estimate that the food supply system carries 30 to 60 days' supply in the wholesale and retail sectors alone. If the food supply system is interrupted for several days, it could
absorb the effects."
Maybe the industry could absorb the effects of some kinds of interruptions, but what if that interruption includes fuel for the trucks that deliver the food? How do they plan to absorb that effect? The
food supply may be adequate, but will it be available?
The report recounts the efforts of the food industry:
"Industries and businesses comprising the domestic food supply have spent considerable time and effort and enormous resources to prepare for the year 2000."
Sometimes you say that about a child who has tried very hard, but hasn't quite accomplished what he set out to do. They tried really hard! Trying hard doesn't make the grade in business or public safety.
The report includes some statistics:
"Gartner Group expects that 75 percent of the industries studied will have reached the end of level four or will be at level five by the end of the year."
Level four: "… all key systems are 100 percent compliant and certified, interfaces have been corrected or protected, and key partners have been assessed and certified."
75 percent isn't good enough to arrive at the report's conclusion:
If I tried to drive on 75 percent of my tires, I wouldn't get very far. Further statistics from the report indicate:
"Eighty percent of the companies have completed over 90 percent of remediation and testing of their corporate information systems, and 75 percent have initiated work on embedded systems. About 80
percent of organizations are at some stage of contingency planning; however, some are not planning to take this step at all. Gartner Group expressed some concerns with the adequacy of contingency
planning efforts."
That means that 25 percent of the companies have not even started working on embedded systems.
The report quoted surveys:
"A survey taken in December 1998 by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) found that very few seed and feed farmers have automated systems so the potential for year 2000 effects is
very low among this group. Most feed, seed, and fertilizer processors have corrected and certified their key automated systems, including systems used for record keeping, and have either certified
connections with suppliers and customers or have built firewalls to protect their systems."
That's good news for the next growing season. More conclusions from the report appear reassuring:
"Domestic farm production (grains, fruits and vegetables, meat and poultry, dairy) – This sub-sector has a low probability of significant effect from year 2000 and has shown a significant
improvement in year 2000 preparedness since this summer."
This sounds really good until you think about farm equipment parts that come from overseas from countries like China and India or fertilizer based on petroleum products, or electricity needed to pump
water for irrigation or fuel needed to run the farm equipment.
The report relies on surveys:
"Grocery Manufacturers of America, which represents food and beverage product companies with over $460 billion in annual sales, surveyed its members in June 1999 and found that almost 90 percent of
those responding had completed year 2000 preparations and 97 percent had contingency plans in place."
Notice the key phrase here, "of those responding." The interpretation of this sentence is:
less than 90 percent of some unknown number of food and beverage companies have completed year 2000 preparations.
Surprisingly, some surveys are not so reassuring:
"The American Bakers Association reports that the top five bread companies, which account for 24 percent of the baked goods market, are ready for year 2000. Smaller bread companies are also well
prepared. A June 1999 survey by Mathis & Associates of businesses in selected sectors of the food system found that nearly 80 percent of small and medium-size bakers, representing 27 percent of
the bread market, have already remediated their systems as needed or expect to do so by December 31."
In other words, 51 percent of the bread market might be ready for the year 2000.
Every report on year 2000 readiness reads like this one. They say, "of those who responded" or "75 percent of 90 percent of 62 percent…" Of what? The figures are meaningless because the data are
meaningless. The only data cited that are of value are the dollar amounts spent on year 2000 efforts. The dollar amounts spent around the world are staggering. They indicate that year 2000 remediation
has proven to be a major challenge.
Every sector of the food industry is making contingency plans. They are worried that something will fail. Yet they tell us, "The risk of a serious or widespread disruption within the food
supply system is slight."
Members of the FSWG are mentioned as having "contingency plans in place" as an integral piece of Y2K readiness.
Then the report cautions us that citizens making contingency plans for their families may cause shortages:
"While consumer overbuying or weather-related problems may result in spot shortages of certain food products, the Food Supply Working Group concludes that the year 2000 problem will have a
negligible effect on the U.S. food supply. Consumers should prepare for the year 2000 as they normally would for a long, and very special, holiday weekend."
Notice the weasel words here. If there are any shortages, they will be caused by people buying food for their families, not by food companies whose just-in-time practices are presenting a very real threat
to the food supply to the consumer. The food supply may exist in the country after January 1, 2000, but can it get to the family table?
On the topic of imported food, the report assures us that:
"Overall, the conclusions of these reports are positive, both in terms of U.S. agricultural export markets and the supply of imported food to the United States."
"However it should be noted that data in the international area have sometimes been difficult to verify."
The conclusions stated in the report appear to be based more on wishes, hopes and dreams than on the very statistics found in the report itself.
The statistics found in the report are damning in isolation. Even more worrisome, is the absence of any mention the interconnectedness of the food supply system. The report does not address the very real
possibility of oil shortages. Actually, the report does mention oil in passing – vegetable oil.
Changes in computer behavior will cause supply-chain problems. Computers are used in every link in the supply-chain: farm to fork, oil well to gas station, raw materials to pharmacy, application to
welfare check, silicon to computer chip, rain to tap water, toilet to waste treatment, telecommunications, natural gas well to stovetop, coal to electric lights and just about everything else we take for
granted in our modern society.
If businesses and governments need contingency plans, so do individuals.
Emergencies happen every day. Over half a million Maryland and Virginia residents lost power because of Hurricane Floyd. My 82 year old mother is one of them. She went without electricity for six days.
After Hurricane Floyd, residents of North Carolina were stranded in their homes with no source of food or water except what they had stored for emergencies. Preparing for any emergency is just good,
common sense.
While there are less than 6 weeks left before the date rollover, there is still time for you to prepare and test a personal or family contingency plan. People who are prepared can be patient while Y2K
problems (or other emergencies) are solved.
Stock a full pantry of non-perishable food that doesn't take much or any cooking. Store at least one gallon of water per person per day. As you are making your plans, think about who you care about
and who might show up on your doorstep and, if feasible, include them in your plans.
Determine how you will stay warm, and test your plan as soon as it gets cold. Ask your fire department how to ensure light and warmth without burning your house down, or dying of carbon monoxide poisoning.
The government is afraid of panic. I am afraid of apathy. Let's panic now and get those trucks rolling filled with non-perishable food for neighborhood grocery stores. The only way consumers can be
assured of an abundant food supply is to have it stored in their homes. It is imperative for some people to over-prepare because most other people either cannot or will not prepare at all. People who are
comfortable and safe are more willing and better able to reach out and help those in need in times of crisis.
www.y2kkitchen.com Copyright © Sally Strackbein sally@y2kkitchen.com
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