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Why You Shouldn't Believe the Y2K Optimists
by Sally Strackbein
I cannot tell you how long or if anything will be out of service. I can only tell you my philosophy. I spend a great amount of money each year to insure my home, my car and my health. The chances of my
needing any of them to the extent of even paying back on my investment is remote. I don't fuss if nothing happens and I don't collect on my insurance. I consider anything I do to prepare for Y2K to be my
insurance policy. I won't be upset if nothing happens - embarrassed, but not upset.
Real People Real Project
Let me tell you a story that might help. I wrote a computer program for a client in 1993. It was Y2K compliant then (but that isn't the point here). They only run it for a week twice a year.
Rather than have someone on their staff learn its details, they hire me to fly across the country and set it up for them each time. Before I can do my part of the work, they need to do some preparation.
I have been working with the same people the whole time. (They are a wonderful bunch and have very little turnover). They are also some of the most intelligent and hardworking people I have ever met.
I don't change the program, as it works fine just the way it is. They set up the hardware - network connections, printers and computers. For a week the system is used by about 1200 people who may never
have seen a computer before. Each person has about 15-20 minutes to use the system to meet a specific need. There is absolutely no room for failure.
They've Done it Before
Each time I am ready to set the system up, I send a checklist of what needs to be done before I get there. Each time I get there I am assured that everything is set up and working properly.
Keep in mind, the same people have been doing this for years. Each time, I go to the place where the activity is to happen and I test everything. Invariably, something is slightly different in the
network or the printer is not the same model they used last year... Every time - there is something that doesn't work and it takes an afternoon or a day to fix. Then something else doesn't work. That is why I always get there several days before I need to because I have done it before and I know (or can predict fairly accurately) the maximum amount of time needed to fix things and I always allow several days extra.
No Extra Time for Y2K
No one has allocated extra time for Y2K. They haven't even scheduled a bare minimum.
Every utility in the world, every business, every factory, every city, every state, every grocery store, every farm, every telephone company, every municipal water treatment plant, every TV station, every
military base, every hospital, every police department, every prison, every sewage treatment plant... will all be trying something new on the same day. They will be facing computer failures they haven't
seen before and may not know how to fix.
Do you think the 800 numbers are going to work when people start calling to get help? Do you think the parts to replace the ones that don't work are going to magically appear? Do you think the technicians
who have never seen this particular problem are going to be able to fix it right away?
Too Many Problems at the Same Time
Do I think we have a problem? You bet I do. Each problem taken individually could probably be taken care of and we'd never even notice. It's all of them happening at the same time that will
cause chaos. Even if only 5 % of the above listed entities have problems, we are in for an adventure.
What is Really Important?
I can't say how long we will have problems, but I am preparing for a long time. I can't tell you what to do, but I suggest that you look at your life and decide what is important to you. What
are your priorities?
Is the new dress important, or is it more important to buy a good water filter so you can drink water from a puddle? Is a new couch important or would a wood burning stove or some good sleeping bags...
You get the picture.
I think the problems will be severe at first and then sporadic. I think goods we are used to getting from overseas will be in short supply for a very long time. This is only a guess.
www.y2kkitchen.com Copyright © Sally Strackbein sally@y2kkitchen.com
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